Storm Ahead: Government Mobilises Nation for Possible El Niño Rains

By Michael Nyamai -

Nairobi, Kenya, September 10, 2026 - The Government has sounded the alarm over a possible El Nino event expected to bring above-average and potentially very heavy rainfall across Kenya from October 2026 into early 2027, urging Kenyans to prepare early but avoid panic.

Government Spokesperson Charles Owino addresses the media on the anticipated El Niño rains expected from October 2026, urging Kenyans to prepare early and remain alert. //Photo Courtesy: Charles Owino FB

Government Spokesperson Charles Owino said Kenya has a 90 per cent chance of experiencing above-average or very high rainfall as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean continue to rise.

According to Owino, the current sea surface temperature anomaly stands at positive 2.7, a threshold the Meteorological Department expects to be surpassed, potentially triggering significantly warmer ocean temperatures and enhanced rainfall across the country.

“For this rainfall to possess high intensity and greater destructive capacity, the El Nino conditions would typically need to be supported by Indian Ocean Dipole above positive 0.4,” Owino said.

He, however, noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole currently stands at a neutral positive 0.25, with the Meteorological Department closely monitoring the situation.

“Regardless, the country has a 90% chance of experiencing above average or very high rainfall due to El Nino. As government, we urge everyone to prepare and act early,” he said.

The warning comes amid concerns over the effects of depressed rainfall and intense heat waves in the western region, which is a key source of the country's staple food.

Owino said the region has already experienced crop failures, raising concerns about the impact of the anticipated weather conditions on food security and livelihoods.

“There is no cause for panic. However, there is every reason for government institutions, communities, and individual citizens to remain alert and take appropriate precautionary measures,” he said.

The Government has adopted a coordinated multi-agency preparedness strategy, with all State Departments expected to establish National Standing Committees for Preparedness on El Nino Incidents Management.

County governments, working alongside National Government Administration Officers, have also been directed to put measures in place to protect lives, livelihoods and critical infrastructure while ensuring emergency response mechanisms can be activated swiftly.

Those living in riparian areas have been urged to move to safer grounds before the rains intensify.

The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority will continue issuing regular updates on the El Nino situation, Indian Ocean Dipole and the October-November-December rainfall outlook as conditions evolve.

Meanwhile, Principal Secretary for Broadcasting and Telecommunications Stephen Isaboke said the Government is stepping up crisis communication to ensure no Kenyan is caught unaware.

Isaboke, who chairs the National Crisis Communication Standing Committee, said the Government intends to “over-communicate” the threat to ensure early warnings reach communities across the country.

“We don't want to hear messages coming with the kind of idea that no one heard this thing. That's why we're all coming out to actually ensure...let everyone be aware that this, what you're having now, is a land before the storm,” Isaboke said.

He said the Government's crisis communication strategy will focus on ensuring information is accurate, timely, verified, transparent, credible, consistent and inclusive.

“An accurate forecast like what you're dealing with or a technical advisory can only protect lives and livelihoods when it reaches the people who need it,” he said.

Isaboke said the Government will work with vernacular radio stations, National Government Administration Officers and other communication platforms to take weather warnings directly to communities, particularly those in areas vulnerable to flooding and other emergencies.

The PS said the coordinated communication approach will also bring together ministries, departments, agencies and other stakeholders to strengthen public messaging and combat misinformation during emergencies.

The Government has urged Kenyans to remain vigilant, follow verified official advisories and take precautionary measures ahead of the anticipated October 2026 rains.

“There is no cause for panic, but there is every reason to prepare early,” remains the Government's central message as the country braces for potentially severe weather conditions.